A season once filled with great expectations has already been pushed to the brink for the Lumberjacks.
Northern Arizona entered the 2016 campaign with lofty goals. Everyone who follows the Big Sky Conference seemed to agree. NAU returned arguably the best quarterback in the country in sophomore Case Cookus, the reigning FCS Freshman of the Year. Northern Arizona’s skill positions were flush with talent, from Washington transfer Kendyl Taylor’s move back to running back to Emmanuel Butler’s peerless ability to snatch the ball out of the air to Elijah Marks’ breathtaking speed.
In the first season operating Tim Plough’s balanced, efficient and up-tempo run-pass option offense, NAU scored at least 41 points in six of its eight Big Sky contests and at least 52 three times, staying alive in the league title race and the playoff hunt until the final week of the season. A 7-4 record was not enough to get NAU into the postseason for the fourth time in Jerome Souers’ 19 seasons at the helm, but it was enough to breed optimism in Flagstaff throughout the offseason.
NAU topped the Big Sky preseason polls, the consensus selection by the league’s coaches and its affiliated media to win the conference in 2016. Cookus talked at the Big Sky Kickoff in Park City, Utah in July of relishing the expectations and hoping to embrace them.
NAU offensive coordinator Tim Plough works with quarterback Case Cookus
Five weeks into the season, the march toward a conference title has been nothing short of disastrous for the Lumberjacks. A tough schedule, an inability to convert in the red-zone, a slew of injuries including to Cookus, a pile of penalties and just plain bad luck has Northern Arizona still searching for its first Division I victory with a matchup against suddenly struggling Montana State in Bozeman upcoming on Saturday evening.
“We are really disappointed with how things have started,” Plough said when asked about his team’s 1-4 record. “Football is football, things happen a certain way you can’t explain sometimes. We have played a lot of good teams on the road and unfortunately, we haven’t been able to pull out wins. It really doesn’t matter who we are playing right now. We have to figure out a way to win a game, whether it’s 1-0 or 100-99.”
Northern Arizona’s season began with a matchup in Tempe against in-state Pac 12 rival Arizona State. The Lumberjacks moved the ball into the red-zone five times but two failed fourth down tries inside the 20 contributed to a 44-13 loss. The following week, NAU again advanced the ball inside the 20 at will and again missed two fourth-and-shorts inside the red zone and did not convert either on the way to a 34-20 loss. Against Eastern Washington, NAU trailed 36-28 late in the third quarter in Flagstaff and possessed the ball. Cookus went down with an injury, Eastern scored twice to begin the final frame and NAU lost its first conference contest, 50-35.
“We had a lot of big-time games early on, we played close but just couldn’t finish it,” said Taylor, a senior who contributed at Washington two years ago before transferring to NAU before last season.
NAU wide receivers Kendyl Taylor (13) and Alex Holmes (14) go up top in 2015
“We’ve had some tough losses but we aren’t letting that define us. We are going to come out and keep fighting like we should.”
Last week against Northern Colorado, backup quarterback Blake Kemp and true freshman running back Joe Logan both fumbled inside the five-yard line in a 21-18 loss. The Lumberjacks also committed 11 penalties, including one that called back a touchdown that could’ve been the go-ahead score.
“Our inefficiency in the red zone has just crippled us throughout the year,” Plough said. “It’s been too bad because I think we are still ranked fifth in the country in total offense (504 yards per game). Elijah and Emmanuel are still having good years. We get down in the red zone and we’ve had things go against us, some turnovers, not converting fourth downs. These are things we talk about all the time.”
The defense has not been immune from the injury bug or inconsistent play. Andy Thompson’s unit has seen veteran strong safety Wes Sutton, talented sophomore cornerback Maurice Davison and physical linebackers Jake Thomas and Byron Evans miss time as well.
“Our group likes to play football so they are coming out and working hard,” Thompson said. “They are as disappointed as anybody to try to find a way to get over the hump and get a win. You go back to work and the worst part is when you are not practicing because you are thinking about how you can get back out there and improve.”
NAU is giving up 406 yards per game, almost 100 yards less than the Lumberjack offense is averaging each time out. But NAU is scoring 32 points per contest and giving up 30.4, a number that is skewed by its lone win: a 73-3 runaway against New Mexico Highlands. With four starters on the shelf, players like sophomore linebacker Jake Casteel and senior defensive end Lorenzo Melvin have had to step up.
NAU defensive coordinator Andy Thompson
“We have struggled to be consistent,” said Thompson, NAU’s defensive coordinator since 2009 and a former linebacker at Montana. “You are seeing flashes of good defense but other times, we are not making plays. I thought last week, we took a good step with shutting out Northern Colorado in the second half and giving our offense a bunch of opportunities. But we didn’t win and that’s all that matters.”
Saturday evening, NAU plays against a Montana State team trying to get back on track as first-year head coach Jeff Choate tries to redefine the culture of the program. MSU has shown vast improvements defensively — the Bobcats are leading the FCS with 16 takeaways — but has struggled to find consistency offensively.
Montana State is 0-2 in Big Sky play, one of three teams — NAU, UC Davis are the others — without a league win entering the second Saturday of October. MSU is 2-3 overall, the lone Division I win a 27-24 victory over Bryant in Bozeman. Montana State fell by three points at Idaho, by two points to North Dakota at home and surrendered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in a 41-38 loss at previously winless Sacramento State last week. That’s eight points in three losses in Choate’s first season.
“It’s amazing how frustrating and maddening it can be but you can’t let it effect your preparation or your attitude,” Choate said. “I love our kids. I like our approach. I think our coaches have done a good job with these guys. Our margin for error is very slim. You see that, especially late in games.
“We have a good football team coming to town Saturday. They are a wounded animal too. I’m sure they didn’t envision themselves being 1-4 right now and I don’t think most people in the conference did but that speaks to the parity of our league and how hard it is to win on the road in this league.”
MSU linebacker Fletcher Collins (59) celebrates a fumble recovery in 2016
Under the direction of first-year defensive coordinator Ty Gregorak, Montana State’s defense has not been nearly as prone to giving up big plays this season as the previous two. The Bobcats have three times as many interceptions (9) as they did all of 2015. The progression of players like middle linebacker Fletcher Collins and strong safety Bryson McCabe coupled with the addition of graduate transfer cornerback John Walker (Colorado) have paid huge dividends.
But last week in Sac, Montana State’s defense ran out of gas. The Bobcats had to face 94 Sac State snaps and appeared to have dead legs in the fourth quarter. MSU dropped two interceptions that would’ve sealed Choate’s first Big Sky win. Instead, the unit surrendered 20 unanswered fourth quarter points as MSU gave up a 38-21 lead.
“We got home and that was such a bad feeling especially after seeing progress week by week, thinking we are doing it,” Gregorak said. “Our tackling had been so much better and it dropped off against Sacramento State. Getting the football, things like that, the things we need to hang our hat on, we failed on Saturday.
“Saturday, it’s a must-win for both teams. Backs against the wall mentality.”
Souers has been through more Big Sky battles than any coach in the league after taking over at NAU in 1998. He’s had ups and downs and generally likes to only look at the big piciture before and after the season. During it, he takes “a myopic approach” of one game at a time. He has been proud of how his players have handled the early disappointments of 2016.
NAU head coach Jerome Souers
“Our locker room has been great,” Souers said. “Our team has continued to come out and practice hard. Understanding that everybody controls your own destiny and how you prepare each week and if you are getting better each week, that’s our goal. I think everybody has to manage injuries. Those challenges are in our locker room right now but I like the way our team is handling it. There’s a lot of football left to play.”
Photos by Brooks Nuanez. All Rights Reserved.
