Big Sky Bets

BIG SKY BETS – Week 13


Last week was our worst week yet. No question about it. But we are back for the final week of the regular-season ready to pick winners.

In one of the worst bad beats you can think of, BYU had the ball one yard away from the end-zone and kneeled three times in a row.  The Cougars beat Idaho State 42-10, missing covering -32.5 by half a point. OUCH.

Northern Colorado came out of nowhere to score 38 points against North Dakota’s normally stout defense to deny UND -16. The Fighting Hawks won 45-38 but missed covering by more than touchdown.

Weber State entered Saturday’s game at Montana on a 13-game Big Sky Conference winning streak. WSU had won 28 of its last 32 league contests and held a No. 3 national ranking. Montana destroyed the Wildcats, building a 35-3 lead with just 15 minutes of possession in three quarters and cruising to a 35-16 win. Weber State +4.5 wasn’t even close.

NAU scored eight points less than its single-game average against a previously terrible Southern Utah defense. In fact, Northern Arizona lost to the hapless Thunderbirds, 31-30, meaning NAU -3.5 was incorrect.

Idaho has been good at home and terrible away from the Kibbie Dome. The Vandals have competed with everybody in Moscow…until last weekend. Sac State continued its march toward the playoffs by shredding UI 31-7 and blowing our pick of Idaho +9.5 out of the water.

Montana State did not allow a first down the final 18 minutes of the game and rallied for a 27-17 win over UC Davis. We picked UCD -3.

And Eastern Washington capped our winless week by blowing a 35-21 lead midway through the quarter and barely hanging on for a 42-41 win over Cal Poly. We had EWU -11.

Week 11 Record: 0-6

Overall Record: 40-50-2

Week 13

(All lines provided by 5dimes)

Lock of the Week: Montana -5 (Season: 8-4)

Best Investment: Portland State +400

Over Under Lock: Portland State/Eastern Washington Over 72 (Season 6-6)

Saturday 11/23

Montana @ Montana State (+5) O/U 54 12:00 PM

Montana State running back Troy Andersen (15) tackled by a group of Montana defenders in 2018/by Brooks Nuanez

Here we go folks. Montana is coming off an absolute drubbing of the Weber State Wildcats last week. They made the Weber defense look like a joke and come into this game with a ton of confidence. A playoff seed is on the line this weekend and you have to believe that the Griz would benefit from a first round bye. UM senior quarterback Dalton Sneed appears to be back and if he isn’t at full health, he sure looked like he is on the way last weekend.

Don’t write off the ‘Cats though. MSU is coming off a big road win against a UC Davis team that is finally healthy. Troy Anderson took a beating last weekend and you would have to think that will be a factor this weekend. Both teams appear to be peaking at the right time and I think this will be a great game. The deciding factor comes down to offense. Can Montana State control the ball with their run game, or will Montana command the air attack and take over? Jeff Choate has been a Griz killer since he has shown up, but I think Bobby Hauck has his rebuild ahead of schedule. I’m taking the Griz -5 in Bozeman this weekend. This is also my lock of the week.

Pick: Montana -5

Southern Utah @ North Dakota (-12) O/U 62.5 12:00 PM

Southern Utah running back Karris Davis (26) in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Southern Utah stunned Northern Arizona last weekend, overcoming a halftime deficit to get a huge win in Flagstaff. The Fighting Hawks are coming off of a close win at home against a bad Northern Colorado team. Unfortunately for Southern Utah, I think North Dakota has to blow them out to make the playoffs and I think that will happen. I like the Fighting Hawks to cover and keep their playoff hopes alive. Give me North Dakota -12. 

Pick: North Dakota -12

Cal Poly @ Northern Colorado (+3.5) O/U 56.5 12:00 PM

Northern Colorado head coach Earnest Colling Jr. in 2018/by Brooks Nuanez

Cal Poly has struggled down the stretch. They have lost five in a row, but almost beat a surging Eastern Washington team last weekend. Northern Colorado is coming off of a close loss to North Dakota last weekend. I just don’t have any faith in Northern Colorado against the run. I think Cal Poly has a day rushing. I like Cal Poly to cover +3.5.

Pick: Cal Poly -3.5

Idaho @ Northern Arizona (-3) O/U 67 2:00 PM

Northern Arizona head coach Chris Ball in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Again, I hate betting Idaho. But they are on the road, where they are 0-5 and face NAU quarterback Case Cookus on his senior night. Mason Petrino did not look good last weekend, but Sacramento State’s defense is way better than Northern Arizona’s. I have no confidence in this pick, but I have to think Cookus will find success through the air. I think there will be points scored on Saturday, and I think it will be close. Ultimately I think Northern Arizona’s offense will be the difference. I like NAU -3.

Pick: Northern Arizona -3

Idaho State @ Weber State (-20.5) O/U 54.5 2:00 PM

Weber State running back Kevin Smith (4) vs Montana in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Idaho State barely covered last week due to one of the worst bad beats I have seen in years. Weber State is coming off of an absolute beat down at the hands of Montana. I think Jay Hill will get his team right before the playoffs begin. I think Idaho State has checked out on the season. I like Weber State to win big and cover. Give me Weber State -20.5.

Pick: UC Davis -3

Portland State @ Eastern Washington (-14) O/U 72 2:05 PM

Eastern Washington linebacker Chris Ojoh (56) vs Montana in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Portland State had a bye week last weekend and I think they have had time to prepare for the daunting Eastern Washington offense. The Eagles put up 42 last week, but barely escaped against a last-place Cal Poly team. There will be points in this game, but I think Portland State keeps it close. I’ll take Portland State to cover this game in Cheney. Give me Portland State +14.

Pick: Portland State +14

UC Davis @ Sacramento State (-9) O/U 61 3:00 PM

Sacramento State defensive end George Obinna (99) in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Sac QB Kevin Thomson is back with a vengeance and blew out the Vandals last weekend. The Sacramento State defense shut down the below average Vandal attack and the Hornets got some momentum heading into the big rivalry game. UC Davis floundered down the stretch last weekend at home against Montana State and the Aggies need a big win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately for the Aggies, I think the Hornets are too much to handle. I like Sac head coach Troy Taylor to take care of business. Give me UC Davis -9.

Pick: Sacramento State -9

Photos by Brooks Nuanez. All Rights Reserved.

Montana @ Montana State(+5)O/U 5412:00 pm
Pick: Montana -5
Southern Utah @ North Dakota(-12)O/U 62.512:00 pm
Pick: North Dakota -12
Cal Poly at Northern Colorado (+3.5)O/U 56.512:00 pm
Pick: Cal Poly -3.5
Idaho @ Northern Arizona(-3)O/U 672:00 pm
Pick: Northern Arizona -3
Idaho State @ Weber State(-20.5)O/U 54.52:00 pm
Pick: Weber State -20.5
Portland State @ Eastern Washington(-14)O/U 722:05 pm
Pick: Portland State +14
UC Davis @ Sacramento State(-9)O/U 613:00 pm
Pick: Sacramento State -9

About Sam Lewis

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