October began with a less blurry grouping of the contenders and the pretenders in the Big Sky Conference. The first week of action this month brought a few contenders taking hits while a few unlikely teams have thrust themselves squarely into the league race.
Even without senior All-American quarterback Gage Gubrud, Eastern Washington continued strengthening its hold on the league lead thanks to a 55-17 win over Southern Utah to keep the defending co-champions winless. EWU’s win moved the Eagles up to No. 3 in the FCS STATS Top 25 and to the top of these rankings.
Idaho State blasted in-state rival Idaho and UC Davis built a 49-10 lead before holding on for a 49-36 win to keep Northern Colorado winless. ISU and UCD join the Eagles as the three teams remain unbeaten in conference play with six weeks remaining.
Previously red-hot Montana fell back to earth after Cody Williams split the uprights at Washington-Grizzly Stadium for a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds to lift the Vikings to their first win in Missoula since 1987. Despite All-American Case Cookus missing his fourth straight game, Northern Arizona emerged with a 28-24 upset of No. 7 Weber State, handing last season’s co-champs its first Big Sky loss in a calendar year.
Sacramento State came off a bye to lose to a suddenly hot Cal Poly squad that notched its first Big Sky victory over the Hornets. Montana State comes off its bye to host Idaho for the first time since 1995.
This week marks the second of eight editions of Skyline Sports’ Big Sky Conference power rankings. These rankings are based on strength of schedule, quality of wins and most recent performance. Included are our weekly picks from the previous and upcoming weeks.
PICKS FOR BIG SKY GAMES ON OCTOBER 6
*Portland State at Montana – L
*Weber State at Northern Arizona – L
*Cal Poly at Sacramento State – L
*UC Davis at Northern Colorado
*Southern Utah at Eastern Washington (ROOT)
*Idaho at Idaho State
SKYLINE SPORTS 2018 PICKS FOR PRESEASON POLLS
WEEK: 3-3
OVERALL: 42-11
BIG SKY PLAY: 11-7
PICKS FOR BIG SKY GAMES OCTOBER 13
$Montana at North Dakota
*Idaho at Montana State (ROOT)
*Eastern Washington at Weber State
*Sacramento State at Southern Utah
*Idaho State at UC Davis
*Northern Colorado at Portland State
BIG SKY POWER RANKINGS
1. Eastern Washington (3-0 in Big Sky play, 5-1 overall)
At first, Aaron Best’s desire to implement more of a physical mindset into one of the country’s most prolific passing offenses seemed like a far fetched idea. Six games into his second season as EWU’s head coach, the old offensive line coach has done exactly that. And it’s made the Eagles arguably as hard to stop as any team in the country because of their sudden balance.
Even with Gubrud on the shelf, Eastern rolled Southern Utah last week. Sophomore Eric Barriere’s 85-yard touchdown run, one of two scores on the ground on the day, was part of a 380-yard effort on the ground in a 55-17 win. In four games against Big Sky opponents — EWU beat Northern Arizona 31-26 in a non-conference contest — Eastern is rushing for 312 yards per game, including a 441-yard outburst in a 70-17 win over Cal Poly.
The Eagles still rank second in the Big Sky behind UC Davis in passing offense as well, throwing for 287 yards per game, meaning the Eagle offense is one of the most productive and balanced in all of college football. Gubrud has thrown for 1,486 yards and a league-leading 13 touchdowns despite missing last year’s game. EWU senior Sam McPherson is averaging 110 yards per game and 8.8 yards per carry, his 661 yards and eight touchdowns among the top totals in the conference.
EWU takes on defending co-Big Sky champion Weber State in Ogden, Utah. Weber posted a 28-20 win at Eastern Washington last season on the way to a 7-1 Big Sky mark.
2. Idaho State (3-o in Big Sky play, 4-1 overall)
No, it’s not a typo. Idaho State is the hottest team in the Big Sky. The last time Idaho State started 3-0 in Big Sky play came in 1981. That year, the Bengals won the Division I-AA national championship.
No sort of proclamations or predictions are being made here. But ISU’s three wins have been impressive. And they have not been against cupcakes. Idaho State won in Grand Forks against a North Dakota team that knocked off No. 5 Sam Houston State the week before. The Bengals followed that up by scoring 56 against an NAU defense that held Eastern Washington to 31 and by dropping 62 on an Idaho defense that gave up just seven points to Portland State the week before.
Idaho State rushed for 285 yards per game in the UND and NAU wins. That production made head coach Rob Phenicie and offensive coordinator Mike Ferriter think the Vandals would likely stack the box to slow down standout ISU running backs James Madison and Ty Flanagan.
Idaho stacked the box and played man coverage on the outside. Idaho State senior quarterback Tanner Gueller diced the Vandals to the tune of 492 yards and a school-record eight touchdowns. Idaho State’s offense is averaging 42.2 points and 522.4 yards per game entering this week’s pivotal matchup at No. 14 UC Davis. A fourth straight win to begin league play will vault ISU into the Top 25 for the first time since the beginning of the 2015 season.
3. UC Davis (2-o in Big Sky play, 4-1 overall)
Davis continued its ascension to heights unseen, building a 49-10 lead over Northern Colorado on the way to a 49-36 win that helped boost the Aggies to No. 14 in this week’s FCS STATS Top 25 poll, UCD’s highest ranking since moving to Division I.
Senior wide receiver Keelan Doss is a legitimate future NFL mid-round draft pick. Junior quarterback Jake Maier is maybe the best pure thrower in the league, a fearless passer who can spin it out of the pocket regardless of the amount of pressure a defense might put on him. But it’s been the other skill players on the Davis offense that has the Aggies averaging 40.2 points and 481 yards per game.
Junior tight end Wesley Preece caught three touchdowns last week and has a team-high four scoring catches this fall. Jared Harrell, a 6-foot-3, 200-pound sophomore who looks like a Doss clone, has emerged as a legitimate No. 2. The St. John Bosco Prep product has 19 catches for 322 yards (17 yards per catch) and has scored a pair of touchdowns. The running back duo of sophomore Tehran Thomas and redshirt freshman Ulonzo Gilliam has given the Aggies a one-two punch that makes the run-pass option elements of offensive coordinator Tim Plough’s offense even more hard to prepare for. Gilliam has 316 rushing yards and six touchdowns, Thomas has 216 yards and three more scores and the No. 1 passing team in the Big Sky is averaging 131 rushing yards per game.
If the first several weeks of league action is any indication, a shootout between Idaho State and UC Davis could play out with playoff ramifications hanging in the balance at Aggies Stadium on Saturday.
4. Northern Arizona (2-1 in Big Sky play, 3-3 overall)
The Lumberjacks are one of the big movers in this poll this week after last week’s breakthrough 28-24 win over No. 7 Weber State. The loss was the Wildcats’ first loss in league play in a calendar year. NAU limited Weber’s struggling offense to 176 yards and forcing five turnovers to overcome the six TOs committed by the Lumberjack offense.
The victory brings Northern Arizona to 2-2 in the absence of All-American quarterback Case Cookus, who remains out with an undisclosed upper body injury suffered in the first quarter of NAU’s 31-26 non-conference loss to Eastern Washington.
Northern Arizona’s defense leads the league with 19 takeaways, including 13 interceptions. With Washington transfer Daniel Bridge-Gadd at the helm, NAU’s offense is averaging 427 yards per game, including 295 passing yards per contest. But the offense has also turned the ball over 19 times during that span, including six times in a 40-8 loss at Missouri State and six more times in last week’s win. Of those 19 turnovers, 11 of them have been fumbles.
Still, NAU’s win over Weber State is one of the best league victories this season even if the Wildcats are unsettled at quarterback and anemic on offense. NAU will get a week to build on the win with a bye this week before hosting Northern Colorado.
5. Weber State (1-1 in Big Sky play, 3-2 overall)
Despite injuries to headliner running backs Treshawn Garrett and Kevin Smith along with an undefined quarterback situation, the Wildcats strung together three straight wins on the strength of their swarming defense and the scoring ability of the best special teams units in the conference.
Last week in Flagstaff, it all came crashing down as Weber State’s offensive ineptitude was on full display in a 28-24 loss at Northern Arizona. The Wildcats turned the ball over five times. Weber gained just 176 yards, including just 65 rushing yards on 31 carries. Part of that number is influenced by the four sacks taken by Weber quarterbacks Jake Constantine and Kaden Jenks. But WSU managed just 10 first downs and converted just three of its 18 third down chances.
Weber’s offense has struggled all season. WSU ranks last in the league in total offense per game (243 yards per outing), including 12th out of 13 teams in rushing yards (126.8 per game) and passing yards (117.0) per game. Weber’s quarterbacks have completed just 49.2 percent of their passes this season and the team passer efficiency rating of 93.9 is dead last in the Big Sky.
But the Wildcats lead the league in kickoff return average with a mark of 36.6 per return, best in the league by more than 11 yards. Rashid Shaheed had a 100-yard return to spark WSU to its 48-21 win over Northern Colorado. Sophomore Trey Tuttle has hit 10 field goals, tied with Montana’s Tim Semenza for the top mark in the Big Sky. And the Wildcats have returned two fumbles for touchdowns, including an 86-yard scoop and score by Preston Smith last week to give WSU an 8-7 halftime lead at NAU.
All-Big Sky defensive end Jonah Williams, All-American linebacker LeGrand Toia and standout secondary members Jawain Harrison and Jordan Preator have all missed time, including Toia’s pending first-half suspension this week against Eastern for a targeting call late in the NAU loss. Weber State will have to find more consistency offensively, manufacture more points and get healthy on defense if a third straight playoff berth is in the cards next month.
6. Montana State (1-1 in Big Sky play, 3-2 overall)
The Bobcats stay at No. 6 coming off their bye week and hold a spot ahead of Montana for one reason: Montana State beat Western Illinois and Portland State, the two teams that have defeated the Grizzlies this season.
In Jeff Choate’s third season, Montana State has done exactly what most expected the Bobcats would do to this point: MSU posted a narrow home win over WIU in its opener, thrashed Northeast Conference visitor Wagner at home and beat Portland State without much trouble to open Big Sky Conference play. MSU also lost in decisive fashion at No. 3 South Dakota State, 45-14 and to No. 5 Eastern Washington, 34-17 in Bozeman to enter the mid-season bye at 3-2 overall.
The upcoming three-game stretch will define Montana State’s season. MSU certainly needs to win at least one out of this week’s home game against struggling Idaho, at Weber State and at Idaho State. MSU will be favored in home game against Cal Poly and Northern Colorado before heading to Missoula for its season finale against the rival Griz. A 4-4 Bobcat team would likely have to win out in November to guarantee a playoff berth so two wins in the next three would put Montana State in a more favorable position.
If MSU is to win one, two or three of its remaining October games, the Bobcats will need to figure out a way to find consistency offensively. When the offensive line is rolling and Troy Andersen is 100 percent, MSU’s offense has plowed down the field behind its unorthodox, powerful quarterback. Andersen rushed for most of his 145 yards and both his touchdowns in the second half of the 26-23 win over WIU. He got only five carries the next two weeks total, but took one of those 57 yards for a touchdown against Wagner while playing running back due to a left (non-throwing) hand injury. He returned under center to rush for 211 yards in the 43-23 win over Portland State, with 194 of those yards coming in the first three quarters. He managed 94 rushing yards despite taking three first-half sacks in the loss to Eastern Washington.
For the first half against Western Illinois and all but a few possessions against SDSU and EWU, the Bobcat offense has been devoid of flow or rhythm, in turn struggling to possess the ball and putting the MSU defense in bad spots time and again. Finding any sort of passing game and adding some diversity to the read option run game — ie Andersen handing the ball off once in awhile instead of always keeping it — could help Montana State’s offense become less predictable.
The quest for more variety begins on a homecoming Saturday against an Idaho team that gave up 754 yards of total offense last week in its blowout loss to Idaho State.
COMMENTARY: Evaluating the Bobcats, Grizzlies at season’s midpoint
7. Montana (2-1 in Big Sk play, 4-2 overall)
After a red-hot start, the Griz fall to the middle of the back after a historic loss to the No. 12 team from last week’s rankings, Portland State. PSU had not won a Division I game since November 5, 2016. The Vikings had won just four games total since the beginning of the 2016 season leading up to Saturday’s 22-20 win in Missoula, Portland State’s first at Washington-Grizzly Stadium since 1987.
While the win buys a Portland State program fighting for relevancy some time, it changes the entire narrative of Montana’s season. A win would’ve pushed the Griz to 5-1, meaning a 2-2 record against the upcoming stretch of at North Dakota, home against UC Davis, at Southern Utah, at Idaho would’ve meant the Griz would have seven Division I wins heading into their annual rivalry game against Montana State. Now the Griz will likely need to win three games and beat the Bobcats to get to 8-3 and ensure a playoff berth, particularly if Portland State sputters down the stretch.
Against PSU, the Grizzlies’ surprisingly explosive offense fell flat. Quarterback Dalton Sneed entered the game leading the league in total offense only to complete just one pass in 12 attempts for negative yardage in the first half. Montana mustered just 289 yards of offense, a season-low, lost four fumbles and had a punt blocked.
PSU’s flex defense had Sneed and the Griz offense confused from the outset. The Vikings also brought a ton of pressure, exploiting Montana’s inexperienced and overmatched offensive line. Montana will have to remedy that ailment this week at UND, one of the fiercest blitzing defensive units in all of college football. A loss in Grand Forks will shift the Griz into must-win mode for the remainder of 2018.
8. Portland State (1-2 in Big Sky play, 2-4 overall)
The Vikings are the big movers this week after posting one of the signature wins since moving to Division I and joining the Big Sky in 1996. Entering Saturday, PSU was 3-17 all-time against Montana, including posting just one win in Missoula when Garden City native Pokey Allen was Portland State’s head coach and Don Read, formerly the head man at PSU, was in just his second season at Montana.
All 22 of Portland State’s points came off of turnovers, including a crucial fourth-quarter fumble by UM senior Keenan Curran that gave PSU the ball one last time. That final possession ultimately resulted in Cody Williams’ 52-yard field goal to win the game.
The win goes a long way to soothe the heartbreaks of the last three years at Portland State, from the deaths of two standout players to the gut-punch loss on a missed last-second field goal to Oregon State that head coach Bruce Barnum said sparked last season’s 0-11 campaign. The Vikings are almost certainly not going to be in the playoff picture by the end of the season but the team does have a chance to mount a two-game winning streak, hosting winless Northern Colorado at it’s official “home” field Providence Park for the first time this season, which has been taken by the Portland Timbers soccer team for PSU’s first two games in the City of Roses. The Vikings have not posted consecutive wins since beating Big Sky co-champion Southern Utah 24-23, then winning 34-31 at Eastern Washington to end the 2015 season and sew up the second playoff berth in school history. Northern Colorado travels to Portland having posted an 0-6 record on the season.
9. Idaho (1-2 in Big Sky play, 2-3 overall)
Idaho showed it can smother its way to a low-scoring win when the Vandals built a 20-0 halftime lead in a 20-7 win over Portland State. Last week, UI did not slow down anything about Idaho State.
The Big Sky’s newest member had a second straight poor performance against a team that will likely finish in the top half of the 13-team league. Idaho sat in man coverage for most of the game, allowing Gueller to shred the defense over and over again.
A slugfest is likely to ensue in Bozeman on Saturday as two of the most physical, old-school football teams in the league square off. Montana State is just as intent to run the football and win with defense as the Vandals. The matchup at Bobcat Stadium will be a critical one if UI does not want its season to spiral out of control. The Bobcats are hungry for a win coming off a 34-17 loss to Eastern Washington entering its bye and with a game at No. 13 Weber State looming next week. Idaho has a remaining schedule that includes a homecoming date with Southern Utah plus rivalry games at Eastern Washington and home against Montana.
Despite Idaho’s early struggles, Big Sky happy to have Vandals back
10. Cal Poly (1-2 in Big Sky play, 2-4 overall)
It seems like cliche coach speak when a head coach talks about the importance of ball security serving as one of the primary keys to a game. For a triple option outfit like Cal Poly, the premise is utterly essential.
Two Mustangs’ fumbles that led to touchdowns sparked Eastern Washington’s avalanche in EWU’s 70-17 win over Cal Poly to open league play for both teams. Early turnovers, including a botched pitch that bounced perfectly into Josh Buss’ hands, leading to an 80-yard touchdown by the Montana senior linebacker in the first quarter ignited Montana’s 48-28 win over the Mustangs. Cal Poly rushed for 387 yards and possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes but fumbled four times against EWU. CP rushed for 412 yards and held the ball for 38:40 but fumbled the ball three times against the Griz.
Against Sac State, Cal Poly committed no turnovers and completed just one of its six passing attempts, rolling up 462 rushing yards on 70 carries, averaging 6.6 yards per carry in a 41-27 win. The Mustangs have a bye this week.
11. Sacramento State (0-2 in Big Sky play, 2-3 overall)
Coming out of a bye following a hard-fought effort in a 41-34 loss at Montana, Sac was one of the mysteries of the league. Last week in a 41-24 home loss to Cal Poly, the Hornets’ injury situation proved to be detrimental. With senior All-Big Sky defensive end George Obinna still out and junior All-Big Sky defensive tackle Dariyn Choates not in the starting lineup, Cal Poly rolled up 462 rushing yards.
Montana played off Sac State’s lighting fast senior receiver duo of Jaelin Ratliff and Andre Lindsey, a strategy already similar to Cal Poly’s bend but don’t break defensive style. Now all of a sudden, the Hornets have as many league losses this season as they did all last season. Sac State’s two wins have come over an NAIA team (55-7 over Saint Francis) and the last team in these rankings (28-25 over Northern Colorado).
12. Southern Utah (0-2 in Big Sky play, 0-5 overall)
When analyzing the prospects for his third season at the helm, Demario Warren imagined a worst case scenario of Southern Utah entering this week with a 1-4 record. That scenario, Warren said at the Big Sky Kickoff in Spokane in July, would be more a credit to the venues and quality of competition than his team’s limitations. Southern Utah’s uncertainties aside, it was not infeasible to see the Thunderbirds losing to a pair of Pac 12 opponents (Oregon State, Arizona) and at a pair of the Big Sky’s best with a non-conference trip to Northern Arizona and a trip to Big Sky favorite on the schedule.
SUU indeed did drop all four of its four straight road games. A team that has shared two of the last three league titles enter this week still searching for a win because of a gut-punch 34-30 home loss to North Alabama in the first game of the season. SUU is finally back home for the first time since losing to the transitioning FCS program, hosting a suddenly desperate Sac State squad.
13. Northern Colorado (0-3 in Big Sky play, 0-6 overall)
At the Big Sky Kickoff in July, Northern Colorado seventh-year head coach Earnest Collins Jr. said “I don’t want to send my team home for Thanksgiving this year. That’s my goal.” Only six games into the season, that goal is already impossible to attain. Northern Colorado could win out against a stretch that includes trips to Portland, Cedar City and Bozeman along with home games against Northern Arizona and No. 3 Eastern Washington and would still finish with a losing record.
Photos by Brooks Nuanez and Jason Bacaj. All Rights Reserved.
