For the third time in four years, football for the Big Sky Conference and around the Treasure State spilled into January. That, coupled with the fact that the FBS just put a wrap on their season on Monday, and it seems like football sucked up all the air for the last six months.
When doesn’t it? We know, we know. But Big Sky in Boise for men’s & women’s basketball is just around the corner even though it might not seem like it. This weekend, the first round of the fiercest rivalry in the league plays out in Missoula as Montana hosts Montana State for a hoops doubleheader at Dahlberg Arena with plenty of ramifications, both within the scope of the history of that clash as well as in the Big Sky standings on both sides.
And Boise is only seven weeks away. We are not quite to the midpoint. But everyone in the league has played at least six conference contests. So we figured we’d give you some early impressions on what we’ve seen around the conference so far.
Here are five things we know about Big Sky Conference women’s basketball three weeks into the conference season.
Montana State makes teams melt down
At 17-2, the Bobcats are off to one of the best starts in league history. With 11 games left in the regular season and their hardest conference game – at Northern Arizona – already behind them, the ‘Cats have a shot at matching last year’s Eastern Washington team with 29 wins – or even surpassing the Eagles. Driving home the dominance is their average point differential of 15.6, which is three points higher than EWU’s and higher than every team on our list of the 10 greatest of the last decade.
Although Montana State has stars like Portland State transfer Esmeralda Morales and bruising Canadian power forward Marah Dykstra, the run has been driven by depth and a defense that forces turnovers at an equally historic rate. MSU’s average of 14.2 steals per game is currently third in the nation – and also third in Big Sky history behind the 2015 and 2016 Sac State Hornets.
The Bobcats’ press, fronted by freshman Taylee Chirrick, is the best spectacle in the league. Against Weber State last weekend, they forced 32 turnovers, including multiple 10-second calls when the Wildcats couldn’t even get across halfcourt. Then they forced 32 more in a close win against EWU. Aside from Chirrick, who’s tied for seventh in the nation with 57 steals and just had 11 (!) against Eastern Washington, MSU has five other players averaging over a theft per game. The Bobcats have played close games en route to their 7-0 Big Sky start, including beating Idaho by three points and Eastern Washington by two. But until somebody, anybody in the conference shows that they can neutralize MSU’s swarming, chaotic defense, Tricia Binford’s team is going to be the heavy favorite going into Boise.
This is a point guard’s league
Phenomenal point guards have driven the success of each of the last two league champions, with Jamie Loera at Eastern Washington last year and Kahlaijah Dean at Sacramento State two years ago guiding their programs to historic seasons. And great point guard play has been almost a prerequisite for teams hoping to contend for a title in recent years, with names like Darian White at Montana State, Regan Schenck at NAU, Lianna Tillman at Sac State, Gina Marxen at Idaho and Montana and McKenzie Johnston with the Lady Griz all making their mark on the Big Sky.
This year is no different, and the teams at the top of the standings have been driven by great play from their points. That starts with Northern Arizona’s Taylor Feldman, the early front-runner for MVP. Feldman is a near-clone of Schenck, the Lumberjacks’ last great point guard – blurrily fast, supreme physical conditioning, able to control the pace of the game – with the dial tilted slightly towards scoring and away from passing. She’s leading the conference in scoring and is fifth in assists and first in total minutes played.
At first-place Montana State, Esmeralda Morales adds daring shotmaking and offensive verve to the Bobcats’ fearsome defense. Hope Hassman and Olivia Nelson at Idaho give the third-place Vandals two players in the top 10 in the conference in assists. Even lower down in the standings, teams are relying heavily on their point guards. Portland State’s Laynee Torres-Kahapea, Sac State’s Benthe Versteeg and Eastern Washington’s Peyton Howard, along with Feldman, are all in the top five in the conference in minutes per game.
The Idaho rebuild is continuing apace
Idaho appeared to be facing a unique double rebuild when Carrie Eighmey, who replaced longtime head coach Jon Newlee, bolted after one year to take the head job at South Dakota. Honest and fair expectations for this season might have been another reset – a year much like Eighmey’s, when the Vandals showed some encouraging signs en route to a 15-16 overall record, eight conference wins and a first-round loss in Boise. Instead, Eighmey’s top assistant Arthur Moreira has taken the reins and turned the Vandals’ trajectory up a notch. Idaho is 13-4 and, after completing an easy season sweep over the Lady Griz with a 70-57 win on Monday, sits tied for second in the conference with a 5-1 mark.
Moreira, who has a unique background as the only Brazilian-born head coach in Division I, has built the team primarily with transfers. As mentioned above, Nelson (D-II Central Missouri) and Hassmann (CSU-Fullerton) give the Vandals two confident ballhandlers. Rosie Schweitzer (Pacific) is a solid post scorer, while Jennifer Aadland (D-III Augustana) leads the conference in rebounding with 10.4 per game. Anja Bukvic (Louisiana Tech) rounds out the starting lineup, meaning all five of Idaho’s starters weren’t in Moscow a year ago.
Despite that, they’ve clearly bought in to Moreira’s vision. The Vandals are leading the conference in defense and rebounding, own a double-digit point differential and have won five straight after opening conference play with a 59-56 loss at Montana State that was the Bobcats’ closest game at home all year. After playing the last four in Moscow, Idaho heads on the road for two games this weekend, including a Saturday matinee against Feldman and Northern Arizona – the Big Sky’s top scorer vs. its stingiest defense – with second place in the conference on the line.
The Lady Griz are still a make-or-miss team
It doesn’t feel quite right to analyze the on-court play of the Lady Griz, who have been caught in the eye of a storm since head coach Brian Holsinger was placed on administrative leave last week. Since then, Montana is 2-1 under acting head coach Nate Harris, which clawed the Lady Griz back to 3-4 and narrowly in fourth place in the conference ahead of a rivalry weekend against Montana State.
Despite the drama, Montana hasn’t actually changed much on the court. For the last several years, when 3-pointers are falling for the Lady Griz, they look like a contender. When they’re not, they look like a bottom feeder – and that’s been true whether it’s Holsinger or Harris on the bench. Montana shot 48% (10-21) from 3 in a 74-70 win over Weber State in Harris’s debut, then 44% (14-32) in an 81-60 win over Idaho State. Two days after that, Idaho’s defense and the fatigue of a three-games-in-five-days stretch held the Lady Griz to 24% (7-29) from behind the arc…and an uncompetitive 70-57 loss.
Needless to say, rolling the dice on long-range shooting every night is no way to build a true title contender. But with the roster that Montana has, will the Lady Griz be able to play any other way? Montana shoots more 3s than anyone in the conference besides Northern Arizona, and makes them at a higher percentage than any other team.
It’s the complete lack of a Plan B that’s doomed the Lady Griz, who look like amateur hour trying to manufacture points when shots aren’t falling. Izabella Zingaro can be an efficient post scorer, but gives a lot of that back on defense and is playing under 15 minutes a game. Mack Konig has regressed brutally from 3-point range, making it easier for other teams to wall off her driving lanes. Freshman Avery Waddington has sky-high potential but isn’t consistent enough to handle that responsibility. And it might finally, tragically be time to give up on the idea of Dani Bartsch as a team-carrying three-level scorer.
If Harris can solve the conundrum and get consistent offense from somewhere inside the arc, the relative weakness of the conference behind Montana State, Northern Arizona and Idaho means a top-four seed in Boise could still be on the cards. But those answers have to start showing up soon, and Montana State coming to Missoula for the rivalry game is not the best place to start.
Can anyone else rise up?
The stat that best conveys the futility of the bottom two-thirds of the conference is that, heading into Thursday’s games, only one team besides Montana State, NAU and Idaho had recorded a road Big Sky win. The remaining seven are a combined 1-19 away from home in the Big Sky, with the only win going to Sac State, which beat Portland State 76-74 in overtime in the conference opener for both teams. Behind the top three, the rest of the conference is a morass, with seven teams (including the Lady Griz) stuck under .500.
Of that group, who might be best positioned to rise up? We already discussed the Lady Griz. Sacramento State has proven talent in Versteeg, who leads the conference in assists, Eastern Washington transfer Jaydia Martin, Northern Arizona transfer Fatoumata Jaiteh and shooter Katie Peneueta.
At Weber State, Jenteal Jackson has completely changed the Wildcats’ identity in two years, taking them from the worst-shooting team in the league to one of its most accurate, a sliver behind Montana in 3-point percentage.
Eastern Washington’s Joddie Gleason has proven herself as one of the top coaches in the league over the last three years, and Idaho State’s Seton Sobolewski has been on that list for nearly two decades. Gleason’s Eagles are the only one of the seven with a positive in-conference point differential, and can take some encouragement from playing Montana State so close last weekend.
Luckily for everybody involved, the conference is legally required to offer one of the seven stragglers a top-four seed and the resulting first-round bye. Smart money – do not bet on Big Sky women’s basketball! (without reading Skyline Sports first) – is on Montana, Eastern Washington or Sac State claiming the prize.
