The immovable object – Montana’s defense – and the irresistible force – Montana State’s offense – are stealing all the headlines coming into the 2022 Cat-Griz game. For good reason; the Bobcats have scored at least 37 points in every game they’ve played against FCS opponents and the Grizzlies haven’t allowed more than 30 points during regulation time all season.
The game could very well come down to that matchup. But this is football and wilder things have happened as Cat-Griz fans know all too well. No one can forget Brian Ah Yat’s bomb to Justin Olsen in 1997 to set up a last second game-winning field goal for UM or Tucker Yates and Grant Collins blowing up the UM line and backfield to force a last second fumble in 2018 to preserve a comeback win for MSU.
That’s why you never know if it’ll end up being the resistible object (UM’s offensive line) or the movable object (MSU’s defensive line) that end up stealing the show.
One sure fire way to measure a team’s success along the offensive and defensive lines is rushing yardage.
While the Bobcat’ defense has shown the ability to stop the run in some games, their yards allowed per carry is at a pedestrian 4.1 due, in large part, to an inability to contain the edge and consequently getting gashed.
The Grizzlies have been piling up massive rushing yardage the last two weeks, yet they’re still averaging a similarly pedestrian 4.2 per carry after three straight weeks against three of the top run defenses in the Big Sky Conference.
There’s been a noticeable and quantifiable difference between the UM run game over the course of the season based on when starting quarterback Lucas Johnson is in the game and when he isn’t. Johnson was hurt early against Sacramento State and then missed the entire Weber State game. He also left Montana’s 63-7 win over Eastern Washington late in the first half and emerged in the second half on crutches. The seventh-year senior who spent time at Georgia Tech and San Diego State before completing his career at Montana is expected to play on Saturday.
“When he’s (Lucas Johnson) played, they have been different,” MSU head coach Brent Vigen said. “That’s apparent. His mobility, his experience, I think he has the ability to throw the ball well. I think he has the ability to throw the ball well on the run. When he hasn’t played, they look different.
“I know their running back situation has probably settled now and it looks pretty good the last couple of games with the production they’ve had there.
“When they are going, they are a good mix of running the football and play-action RPO and they’ve been able to play at a high rate in many of their games and I think the common denominator in those games is Lucas Johnson is playing.”
With Johnson, Montana has gained a whopping 749 yards rushing the past two games averaging over 7.0 yards per tote. Those numbers are in stark contrast to the previous three games run when the Grizzlies only managed 260 yards and 2.5 per carry and Johnson only played against Idaho and a portion of the first half in the Sacramento State game.
Nick Ostmo has also emerged as UM’s bell cow running back. The sophomore from Portland had 92 yards on 14 carries in a closer than expected 28-20 win over Idaho State to begin October. Then he shared the backfield with junior Marcus Knight and sophomore Xavier Harris over the next month. But Harris has been on crutches lately and Knight hit the NCAA Transfer Portal. That attrition has gone hand in hand with Ostmo’s rapid rise.
The 6-foot, 218-pounder had never had a 100-yard game when he rushed for 221 yards and two touchdowns in UM’s 57-0 rout of Cal Poly. Last week, he ripped off an 80-yard touchdown run and scored on a 45-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter as Montana tied its largest margin of victory ever against Eastern Washington, 63-7. Ostmo finished with 146 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries and 209 yards from scrimmage overall. He’s rushed for 367 of his 704 yards this season since the calendar turned to November.
“They’ve run the ball really well the past two games,” MSU linebacker Callahan O’Reilly said. “That’s something we pride ourselves on is stopping the run. It starts there, they’ve been running the ball well on offense and we need to do our jobs on defense.”
Montana State, meanwhile, have allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and 184 yards the past two weeks. The previous game didn’t go quite as well as the Bobcats allowed Weber State to run for 187 yards with a 4.8 average.
You only need to look at the opposition to figure out where those fluctuations come from. UM looked good against Big Sky bottom feeders Cal Poly and Eastern Washington on successive weeks, but not so hot against three of the top five teams in the league – Idaho, Sacramento State and Weber State – the previous three games. Johnson was knocked out of the game four minutes into the second quarter against Sac State and did not play against Weber.
MSU was able to keep lowly Cal Poly and pass-heavy Northern Arizona at bay in their past two games, but a week prior to that WSU was a different story. The ‘Cats have had a penchant for making big plays, forcing turnovers and also giving up gash gains to the opposing offense.
UM head coach Bobby Hauck has studied MSU’s defensive tendencies enough to know that predicting just where and what to attack is a little more difficult to figure out than what meets the eye.
“They are very multiple on third downs,” said Hauck, who will lead the Griz into the 11th rivalry game under his guidance. “They are obviously not telling us how they are going to play us, so we have had to begin preparation for a lot of different things. I think they play hard, and I think they are a tough team and I think that stems from their head coach and goes into their defense and through the team.”
Vigen is wary of the last two games the Grizzlies have played in large part because of their marked improvement to not only run the ball, but to also find a centerpiece in the backfield. And Ostmo has certainly been a key component.
“Part of their equation lately has been running the football,” Vigen said. “And it seems like settling on Ostmo has been what has propelled them the last few weeks. You aren’t trying to run too many guys through there. Certainly, Lucas Johnson and his ability to run is important for their offense. Certainly, their passing game plays off their ability to run on first and second down.
“We have to be keyed on slowing the run game down and putting them in as many passing situations as possible. That’s a key ingredient for us any week. Our last couple opponents’ (Northern Arizona and Cal Poly) intention on running the ball was not super high. Before the bye week, I thought we balanced things out pretty well defensively, prioritizing the right things. They’ve gotten things going the last couple of weeks, so we are going to have to play well on defense because they are playing well on offense.”
Rolling into the game the Griz offensive line versus the Cat defensive line may not be the duel most fans are looking at, but at the end of the day, it could very well be difference.
“I think it will be a great matchup. I love what we have been doing up front and I’m looking forward to that, for sure,” MSU senior captain Ty Okada said.
The 121st Cat-Griz game kicks off at noon this Saturday at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.
