If you heard a faint whistling around Missoula this week, it wasn’t a cause for alarm — unless you worked for SportsBet Montana. It was just the sound of the over/under for the Montana-Montana State game free-falling like a meteorite.
The line opened at 44.5. By the end of the week, it was sitting at 33.5, a shocking plummet.
Every analysis of the matchups in the 120th Cat-Griz game says that it’s headed towards a defensive stalemate. The defenses of the Grizzlies and Bobcats are salty. Their offenses are shaky.
Heading into the game, Montana State was second in the country in scoring defense. Montana was fifth. Both were in the top 15 in total defense, and both have several players who’ll contend for the Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year award.
It’s easy to imagine a whole lot of three-and-outs, punts flying in a back-and-forth battle of field position on a chilly Saturday in Missoula.
If the game plays out like the analysts and the betting public predicts and it turns into a low-scoring struggle, the deciding factors are likely to shift to the margins of the game. Turnovers. Whatever big plays the offenses scheme up. And, perhaps most importantly, special teams.
“When you have a good offense and a good defense on both sides playing against each other, it’s going to come down to the special teams,” Montana State senior defensive end Amandre Williams said. “We have a lot of playmakers on our special teams and they do too. It’s going to be interesting to see how that unfolds.”
From the kickers to the returners to the coverage teams, both Montana and Montana State have some of the best special teams units in the Big Sky Conference.
Here, we’ll take a deep dive into the special teams matchups to see which team has the advantage in the marginal moments that might be crucial to Saturday’s result.
KICKERS
Montana State freshman Blake Glessner has been a revelation for the Bobcats and probably the best kicker in the Big Sky. He’s 15 for 19 on field goals, third in the conference on pure percentage. Three of those four misses have come from longer than 40 yards. Glessner is 2 for 3 on kicks longer than 50 yards, making a 53- and a 54-yarder so far this season.
He also has touchbacks on half of his kickoffs, 29 of 58. The Bobcats are second in the conference in net kickoff average at 43.4 yards.
Montana is first in that category at 44.4 yards. Brian Buschini, who’s also Montana’s punter, has put 22 of 56 kicks in the end zone for a touchback. If he doesn’t, most teams are choosing to fair catch the kick and take the ball at the 25 rather than try a return against Montana’s coverage team. The Griz have had to defend just two kickoff returns in their last three games.
Montana had a bit of a crisis at placekicker in fall camp, when neither Buschini, nor Billings’ Camden Capser, nor Whitefish’s Carver Gilman were consistently making kicks.
Arizona State transfer Kevin Macias joined the Griz a few weeks before the season started and took the job, although he hadn’t attempted a field goal in two years at Scottsdale CC or three years with the Sun Devils.
He’s 13 for 17 with the Grizzlies, although nine of those makes have come within 30 yards, where he’s perfect. He’s missed both of his tries from 50 or more yards, although he set a new season-long with a 49-yard kick in the Walkup Skydome against Northern Arizona last week.
PUNTERS
The combo of Buschini plus Montana’s coverage unit has been absolutely ridiculous so far this season. The Griz have punted 53 times but given up just 49 return yards. Their net punting average of 44.1 yards is the best in the conference.
Montana State is fourth in the Big Sky in net punting average at 39.4 yards. The Bobcats are nearly as good in coverage, giving up 46 yards on 44 returns, but Buschini is averaging five yards per punt more than Montana State’s freshman Bryce Leighton.
Neither team is afraid to put some of its best players on the kick or punt units. Montana State’s Tommy Mellott is the Bobcats’ backup quarterback — he ran for three touchdowns in place of an injured Matt McKay to lift MSU to a close won over Idaho last week — but also one of their best coverage guys.
Montana has a seemingly never-ending series of defensive backups, mostly from Montana, who have made plays on coverage teams. Big Sky’s Levi Janacaro blocked and recovered a punt for a touchdown against Cal Poly, and Billings West’s Trevin Gradney has made several big hits on punt coverage.
RETURNERS
Junior Montana kick returner Malik Flowers, who led the Big in kick return yards in both 2018 and 2019, was the biggest gamebreaker in the country for a while, returning kicks for scores in back-to-back weeks against Cal Poly and Eastern Washington.
Since that game against the Eagles on Oct. 2, when he had 217 yards on six returns, Flowers has gotten to try a grand total of one kick return, which he took back for 13 yards against Southern Utah. Montana is still leading the Big Sky in average kick return yardage with 29.3, barely ahead of UC Davis but three yards ahead of every other team in the conference.
The Grizzlies had to revamp their punt return rotation when shifty slot receiver and returner Gabe Sulser went out injured in that same Eastern Washington game. Since then, they’ve tried receivers Keelan White and Aaron Fontes and safety Robby Hauck at punt returner. Fontes likely won’t get a shot at it after muffing a punt for the third straight week against Northern Arizona, but White and Hauck have both shown flashes this year — Hauck had a 34-yard return against Dixie State and White had a 31-yarder against Sac State.
This is the one area on special teams where Montana State doesn’t measure up with the Grizzlies. Montana is first in the conference in kick return average and fourth in punt return average. The Bobcats are 13th (dead last) and 12th, respectively. MSU receiver Willie Patterson is averaging under one-and-a-half yards per punt return on 13 tries and has also struggled with dropped punts this season.
Special teams will certainly play a huge factor in the 120th showdown between historic rivals.
Photos by Brooks Nuanez. All Rights Reserved.
