Big Sky Bets

BIG SKY BETS – WEEK 12

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As the season picks up steam, so do our picks.

Last week, we went 4-2 including moving to 8-3 with our locks of the week after Montana State decimated Northern Colorado 45-14 in Greeley to easily cover -11.5.

Montana turned the ball over three times in the first quarter against rival Idaho, falling behind 10-0 early on. But Montana went on its fifth run of at least 24 straight points this season, outscoring the Vandals 42-7 over the final 40 minutes of the game to easily cover -19.

UC Davis kept its FCS playoff lives alive and made a statement by winning 45-28 and making the -3.5 favorites seem laughable.

Idaho State continues to reel and Eastern Washington continues to feast against a subpar schedule. Eric Barriere threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns, rushed for 69 yards and EWU rolled up 689 yards of total offense to win 48-5 and cover the -6.5 points without question.

Entering last week, Kevin Thomson’s status was uncertain. He did not play against Northern Arizona. The still-surging Hornets scored 14 points in the final 98 seconds of the game to emerge with a 38-34 win in Flagstaff. But that was three points short of covering -7 for one of our losses.

North Dakota fumbled a late kickoff of the game, giving Weber State possession easily within All-American kicker Trey Tuttle’s range. Weber drilled a field goal to win 30-27 and stay undefeated in Big Sky Conference play. But the Wildcats fell well short of covering -16.5.

There are two weeks left in the regular-season and we are four games below .500.

Week 11 Record: 4-2

Overall Record: 40-44-2

Week 12

(All lines provided by 5dimes)

Lock of the Week: BYU -32.5 (Season: 8-3)

Best Investment: Weber State +155

Over Under Lock: Montana State/UC Davis Under 59.5 (Season 5-6)

Saturday 11/16

Northern Colorado @ North Dakota (-16) O/U 51.5 12:00 PM

North Dakota head coach Bubba Schweigert in 2017/ by Brooks Nuanez

Northern Colorado continued its slide last week by getting absolutely dismantled against Montana State. The offense has been non-existent lately and they run into a North Dakota team coming off a loss to Weber that they could have easily ended up winning. North Dakota has a sliver of playoff hope left, and they return home where they are undefeated this year. I like the Fighting Hawks to beat Northern Colorado by a large margin. Give me North Dakota -16.

Pick: North Dakota -16

Idaho State @ BYU (-32.5) O/U 58.5 1:00 PM

Idaho State linebacker Cody Graves (25) vs. Montana in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Idaho State continued its dumpster fire last week against Eastern Washington. After their big win against North Dakota, the Bengals have dropped four straight and have been outscored 178-80. They managed to score a safety and a field goal last week against the Eagles. I have no reason to pick them to cover. I like BYU to cover by 32.5 at the very least. This is my lock of the week.

Pick: BYU -32.5

Weber State @ Montana (-4.5) O/U 54.5 1:00 PM

Montana safety Robby Hauck (17) in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Montana hosts Weber State for a huge matchup between two top five football teams. Jay Hill and his Wildcats are coming off of close win last week against North Dakota, while the Griz handled Idaho with ease. I think that if the Griz can utilize their tight ends, they can find success against the suffocating Weber State defense. Weber is undefeated in the Big Sky this season and has the best defense in the Big Sky. However, their offense has struggled at times and Washington-Grizzly Stadium isn’t a walk in the park. I can see the Griz winning this game, but I think it will be close. I like Weber State +4.5.

Pick: Weber State +4.5

Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah (+3.5) O/U 54.5 2:00 PM

Northern Arizona quarterback Case Cookus (15) vs. Montana State in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Two teams that have struggled all season. Fortunately for Northern Arizona, Case Cookus has lead their top-rated passing attack and will be able to put up some points against Southern Utah. The last time we saw Southern Utah, they were down 42-0 at half in Bozeman. Northern Arizona almost knocked off Sacramento State (without Kevin Thomson) and look to keep that momentum going. I don’t think Southern Utah will have much success this weekend, but there will be a lot of points scored on Saturday. I like Northern Arizona -3.5.

Pick: Northern Arizona -3.5

Sacramento State @ Idaho (+9.5) O/U 55.5 3:00 PM

Sacramento State wide receiver Pierre Williams (84) vs. Montana State in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Kevin Thomson is questionable for the Hornets as they travel to Moscow to take on Idaho. I would think Thomson will sit if not 100% healthy, which leaves the door open for a Vandal football team that has some sort of weird mojo working at home. The Vandals were outmatched last week against the Griz, but they return home where they almost knocked off Weber State and have dismantled Eastern Washington and Idaho State. I don’t have a lot of faith in the pick based on the questionable health of Thomson, but I’ll lean towards the Vandals to keep it close this weekend in the Kibbie Dome. Give me the Vandals +9.5.

Pick: Idaho +9.5

Montana State @ UC Davis (-3) O/U 59.5 5:00 PM

Montana State running back Lane Sumner (24) vs. Southern Utah in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Montana State looks to have their offense back on track after absolutely destroying two terrible teams in Southern Utah and Northern Colorado. Tucker Rovig appears to have some confidence in his throwing heading into the UC Davis match up, and I would bet Dan Hawkins is going to make the Cats beat him through the air. UC Davis is on the verge of the playoffs, and a win against Montana State and Sacramento State to close the season would all but guaranteed a playoff berth. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Cats offense on the road. I think this game will be close. But ultimately I think the Aggies cover. I’ll take UC Davis -3.

Pick: UC Davis -3

Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly (+11) O/U 67.5 6:00 PM

Eastern Washington defensive backs Tysen Prunty (22) and Calen Criner (25)/by Brooks Nuanez

Eastern Washington rolled a struggling Idaho State squad last week and the defense allowed a season-low five points. Cal Poly has mustered up 49 points in their last 3 contests combined. The Eagles offense has been on fire as of late and I don’t think Cal Poly will be able to slow them down. If the Mustangs can hang on to the ball, they will be able to keep it close, but I don’t think that will happen. Look for quarterback Eric Barriere to lead the Eagles to a big win. I like Eastern Washington -11.

Pick: Eastern Washington -11

Photos by Brooks Nuanez. All Rights Reserved.

MatchupSpreadOver/UnderTime
Northern Colorado @ North Dakota(-16)O/U 51.512:00 pm
Pick: North Dakota -16
Idaho State @ BYU (-32.5)O/U 58.51:00 pm
Pick: BYU -32.5
Weber State @ Montana(-4.5)O/U 54.51:00 pm
Pick: Weber State +4.5
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah(+3.5)O/U 54.52:00 pm
Pick: Northern Arizona -3.5
Sacramento State @ Idaho (+9.5) O/U 55.53:00 pm
Pick: Idaho +9.5
Montana State @ UC Davis(-3)O/U 59.55:00 pm
Pick: UC Davis -3
Eastern Washington @ Cal Poly(+11)O/U 67.56:00 pm
Pick: Eastern Washington -11

About Sam Lewis

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