The second edition of Big Sky basketball’s most potent rivalry will be a crucial game in the regular-season title race.
Weber State hosts Montana tonight in Ogden, Utah, and, while a Wildcat win would tighten the top of the Big Sky standings and set up a wild three-team race to the finish, a road win for Montana would likely end Weber’s hopes of getting the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament in Boise, Idaho next month.
“This is the point of the schedule that I looked at and said, it’s going to get fun,” Montana head coach Travis DeCuire said earlier this week. “This one right here is going to be just as fun as the ones we’ve already had. … I’m looking forward to it.”
Montana arrives in Ogden in the midst of a seven-game winning streak that already includes one win over the Wildcats. The Grizzlies enter the contest at 17-6 on the season and 10-2 in conference, alone by themselves in first place.
Weber State started the Big Sky schedule 7-1 but has lost three of five to fall to 9-4 in conference, two games behind the Grizzlies in the loss column and just a game ahead of 8-5 Montana State, who the Wildcats host on Saturday.
“These are two really big games for us, obviously, because they’re two really good opponents,” Weber State head coach Randy Rahe said. “With Montana coming in, and they’re the best team in the league, you always kind of want to measure yourself against them to see where you stack up. They’re the oldest team in the league, they have the most talent in the league, and so I think it’s always good for your guys to go up against them.”
Sandwiched between the two teams is Northern Colorado, at 10-3. The Bears play at Idaho tonight.
But all eyes will be on Ogden. Weber State and Montana are the two premier programs in the Big Sky, and have combined to win eight of the last 10 regular-season conference championships (four apiece). Since the inception of the Big Sky, Weber State and Montana have combined to advance to the NCAA Tournament 29 times. The two programs have combined to win 32 of a possible 56 regular-season crowns. Weber State has 22 regular-season banners and 16 trips to the Big Dance, most among the league’s 11 teams.
“There’s 350 Division-I basketball teams in this country, give or take,” DeCuire said. “There’s probably 15 to 20 programs, and Weber’s one of them. When you have a program as opposed to just a team, you have a level of confidence and consistency, a way about your approach every day, that allows you to win games even when you’re outmanned. And I think Randy Rahe’s done a phenomenal job of establishing his program.”
Here are some things to watch for in today’s game.
AKOH, BRAXTON OUT?
Perhaps the biggest question marks for both teams coming into the game revolve around injured big men.
Neither Montana’s Jamar Akoh nor Weber’s Zach Braxton played in their team’s last game, and it’s uncertain whether either will play today.
Akoh took a hard fall in a blowout win over Idaho, and didn’t play for most of the second half of that game, plus the entirety of a one-point win over Eastern Washington last Saturday.
“He could be back for [today’s] game, or he could not be back,” DeCuire said, deadpan, at practice Tuesday. “Right now, it’s just getting as much information as possible in a timely manner.”
The senior had returned from a different injury that kept him out for most of Montana’s non-conference schedule to be the best post in the Big Sky, averaging 16.3 points and 9.1 rebounds per game in conference play. That included a season-high 25 and 10 rebounds in the first game against Weber, in which he took over down the stretch to hold off the Wildcats.
As their primary post defender, Akoh’s absence would also hurt the Grizzlies on that end.
“He’s one of the guys that understands our scheme the most, understands what we’re trying to do on that end,” UM assistant coach Chris Cobb said. “Obviously, having his size is a huge key to what we do, especially being able to guard one-on-one on the block. … There’s things that he gives us that we just can’t get from one other person.”
Donaven Dorsey, Sayeed Pridgett and occasionally Bobby Moorehead took over low-post defensive duties against Eastern Washington, with freshmen Mack Anderson and Ben Carter also seeing some rare first-half minutes. EWU’s starting front court of Jesse Hunt and Mason Peatling combined to score 28 points.
“I think we’re still kind of sorting out the young bigs, in terms of what they’re going to be able to give us to make up for that,” Cobb said. “It’s one of those deals where one guy can’t fill in, it’s got to be a deal where we get production from across the board.”
The good news for Montana is that one of Akoh’s main foils might also miss the game.
Wildcat center Zach Braxton, who had missed just one game in three years coming into the season, was held out against Northern Arizona.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen with Zach,” Rahe admitted on Wednesday. “It’s not going to change what we do as much. We like to throw the ball into him quite a bit, when we can, but … we’re not going to really change how we play. We’ll just do what we do, it’s just hard when you lose 12 points a game and seven rebounds.”
Braxton is averaging 10.6 points and 7.3 rebounds this year.
Obviously, if one center plays and the other doesn’t, it would be a huge advantage for the the team with the healthy player. If both are healthy enough to go, it would be advantage Montana, as Akoh dominated Braxton in one game already this year.
If both are out, Weber might not lose much, with 6-foot-9 Brekkott Chapman (12.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg) there to take over for Braxton, and no one on Montana to punish their lack of depth inside.
TURNOVERS THE KEY?
The team stats leaderboards for the Big Sky Conference paint a clear picture — these are two teams who are mostly good at everything. Montana and Weber are in the top four in the conference in scoring offense, scoring defense, scoring margin, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, rebounding margin — you get the picture.
However, there is one important stat in which the teams are at the opposite end of the spectrum, and it contributed heavily to Montana’s 75-68 win over Weber at Dahlberg Arena back on January 26th — turnover margin.
Montana is second in the conference at plus-2.48 per game, while Weber is ninth at minus-1.04.
In the earlier game, Montana forced 14 turnovers, committed just six, one of the biggest differences in what ended up a seven-point game. UM used pressure in the half-court to turn up the head on a WSU team that already likes to play at one of the league’s fastest paces.
DeCuire and his team came into that game on a mission to exploit Weber’s inability to take care of the ball, and it paid off.
“If you look at the front page of the stat sheet in conference, we’re about even with these guys in pretty much every category,” DeCuire said after the first game. “Those things are going to come out pretty even. The difference is … turnover margin, so that was the area of our strength. If we get back and don’t turn the over, they were going to give it to us, because that’s what they do.”
Turnovers fuel runs, runs fuel momentum, and that’s what the Grizzlies thrive on.
They forced five in a 22-0 run in the first half that had Weber State playing catch-up for the rest of the game.
“We knew how they were going to play us defensively,” Rahe said. “They were going to press us, press the ball screens, do all that. But we couldn’t simulate their athleticism and their talent level in practice, and I thought we got shocked. I think that first half we got shocked with the pressure, how fast they played, their athleticism, and how well they played defensively.”
If the Wildcats give Montana eight extra possessions through turnovers again, the disadvantage might be too much to overcome.
To Weber State’s credit, after committing nine turnovers in the first half, they had just five in the second and nearly came all the way back, cutting Montana’s lead to four at multiple points.
“I was proud of our guys,” Rahe said. “I think they adjusted, we kind of got adjusted to how they played us as the game wore on, and in the second half our guys were much more comfortable trying to attack their defense, and I thought we got more aggressive in the second half.”
