Just when the playoff picture and the league title race seemed to be gaining clarity, a wild weekend clouded things in the Big Sky Conference once again.
Northern Colorado’s upset of Portland State and Northern Arizona’s upset of Eastern Washington means five teams remain alive for the conference title. With a power-packed schedule remaining, it’s entirely possible all five teams could end the season tied with two league losses each.
[restrict paid=”true”]Each Tuesday for the rest of the season, Skyline Sports will break down the Big Sky Conference race with weekly power rankings. These rankings are based on strength of schedule, quality of wins and each team’s future in regards to momentum, health, and upcoming match-ups.
1. No. 18 Southern Utah (6-0 in Big Sky play, 7-2 overall) — Southern Utah is in an unknown position as the Thunderbirds enter the final two games of the season alone in first place.
SUU silenced at least a few doubters last week as the T-Birds showed grit and relentlessness in holding down Montana State’s offense better than any team has this season. SUU held MSU to season-lows of 23 points and 420 yards in a 34-23 win in Bozeman. Montana State entered the game averaging Big Sky Conference bests 44.9 points and 531 yards per game.
Southern Utah’s ability to fluster opposing quarterbacks and put constant pressure on offenses will continue to pay dividends. SUU is the most sound tackling team in the Big Sky led by NFL hopefuls defensive end James Cowser and strong safety Miles Killebrew. SUU will have to transition from Montana State’s multiple, diverse attack to the physical, run-oriented style of Portland State. If SUU can emerge from the City of Roses with a victory, the Thunderbirds will have a chance to become the first team other than Montana or Eastern Washington to post an 8-0 Big Sky record over the last 25 years.
2. No. 10 Eastern Washington (5-1 in Big Sky play, 6-3 overall)
— Eastern Washington finally stubbed its toe last week after pulling out close wins in four of its first five Big Sky outings. Yet the Eagles still have control over their playoff fate.
Eastern Washington lost 52-30 to a red-hot Northern Arizona team in Cheney last Saturday. Eastern likely needs at least one win in its final two games to assure a playoff berth and even that would give EWU just seven Division I wins. To assure a fourth straight playoff bid and to stay in the hunt for a fourth straight Big Sky title, EWU will have to post wins in Missoula over Montana and at home over rival Portland State to finish the season.
For that to happen, EWU will have to lock in defensively. EWU is averaging 37 points per game but the Eagles are giving up 38 per game. Eastern has been particularly vulnerable on the ground, giving up 267 rushing yards per game. Montana has struggled to run the ball (9th in the league in rushing) but Portland State is rushing for 270 yards per game, the second-best total in the Big Sky to the Eagles will have to tighten up if a fourth straight conference crown is to come to fruition.
3. No. 15 Portland State (4-2 in Big Sky play, 7-2 overall) — The Vikings climbed to the top of the Skyline Sports power rankings last week thanks to four straight wins, including most recently a huge 35-16 win over Montana in Portland, PSU’s first over the Griz since 2004.
All of a sudden, Portland State has its backs against the wall. One more win and PSU will have seven Division I victories, meaning the FCS playoffs would be a realistic hope. But the Vikings do not have much clout on the national scene. PSU has qualified for the playoffs just one time (2000) in its program’s history and only cracked the Top 10 of the polls after a 7-1 start that included a pair of FBS wins.
Last week’s misstep, a 35-32 loss to Northern Colorado thanks to a torrid late comeback by the Bears, compromised PSU’s Big Sky title hopes. The Vikings will need to beat Southern Utah and Eastern Washington while also hoping EWU loses at Montana and SUU drops its season finale against NAU for a Big Sky title to remain in the cards. But at least one win will likely punch PSU’s ticket to the FCS playoffs.
That quest begins with the hard-hitting Thunderbirds in Portland this weekend. A win would be PSU’s fourth over a ranked FCS team, which should be enough to punch a postseason ticket.
4. Northern Arizona (4-2 in Big Sky ply, 6-3 overall) — The Lumberjacks continue to have Eastern’s number — NAU downed the Eagles 28-27 last season as well — and this time around, NAU proved it can win on the road as well.
The Lumberjacks’ los at UC Davis last month is looking more and more like something that will haunt NAU. That’s assuming the ‘Jacks don’t win out. If NAU can hold off Sacramento State at home this weekend, NAU will have what amounts to a playoff play-in game with a trip to Southern Utah to finish the season.
NAU has been as hot as any team in the country offensively. The 52 points against EWU was Northern Arizona’s fourth straight game of scoring at least that many points. The ‘Jacks are also averaging 51.2 points per game at home. Freshman quarterback Case Cookus continues to make his case as the league’s best signal caller and if he can stay hot, NAU’s playoff hopes remain alive.
5. Montana (4-2 in Big Sky play, 5-4 overall)
— It seems like it’s been said for weeks, but Montana is already in post-season mode.
The Griz pulled out a miraculous win at Idaho State last week as the Bengals bumbled the snap on a game-winning field goal attempt in overtime. Montana recovered the fumble and Eric Johnson sprinted 40 yards for the winning touchdown in the 33-27 Montana triumph.
EWU considers Montana its rival. The Eagles have beaten the Grizzlies five straight times, including twice last season. EWU ended Montana’s season in the second round of the FCS playoffs last fall. An Eastern win in Missoula could end Montana’s season again.
6. North Dakota (3-3 in Big Sky play, 5-4 overall) — North Dakota did not play last week and therefore remained alive in the playoff race, albeit just barely.
A 7-4 UND team with a win over FBS Wyoming as well wins over Portland State and a ranked Montana State team might be on the playoff bubble. For that to happen, true freshman running back John Santiago will have to keep performing as the Big Sky’s best running back and UND will have to defeat suddenly-hot Northern Colorado at home before taking on Cal Poly on the road.
7. Northern Colorado (3-4 in Big Sky play, 5-4 overall) — Two weeks after losing a heart breaker to Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado secured the upset win the program desperately needed.
For the first time in program history, UNC defeated a Top 10 FCS squad as redshirt freshman quarterback Jacob Knipp and true freshman tailback Trae Riek led the Bears on a two-minute drill to remember. Knipp completed two long passes before Riek scored the game-winner to lift UNC to a 35-32 win.
UNC has been up and down all season. The Bears beat Sac State 27-20 without scoring an offensive touchdown. The next week, UNC hung 56 on UC Davis before losing to EWU on a last-second field goal. Northern Colorado gave up 63 points at NAU only to rally and beat arguably the hottest team in the country in Portland State.
The Bears’ strength of schedule will almost certainly not cater to a playoff berth even if UNC was able to win two straight and finish at 7-4. But seven wins would be a Division I high for a program that joined the Big Sky in 2006. That’s something worth celebrating in itself.
8. Weber State (4-3 in Big Sky play, 5-5 overall) — Like UNC, Weber does not have a playoff berth left to chase but the Wildcats are also gunning for a landmark season.
Last week’s 23-3 win over UC Davis puts Weber in the exact position it wants. The Wildcats have a bye week this week before hosting rival Idaho State to wrap up the season. A win over the Bengals could give WSU its first winning season since 2010, an accomplishment worth noting considering Weber State has six wins over the previous three seasons combined entering 2015.
9. Cal Poly (2-4 in Big Sky play, 3-6 overall) — The Mustangs finally found a break in their brutal schedule and were able to take advantage against in-state rival Sacramento State last weekend.
The Cal Poly defense played lights out against the run, holding the Hornets to 1.6 yards per carry. Offensively, Cal Poly continued to grind out yards with its triple option offense, piling up 366 as four different players rushed for between 48 and 91 yards.
Cal Poly has two winnable games to finish the season as the Mustangs host UC Davis this weekend before playing at North Dakota in two weeks. A win in Grand Forks could foil UND’s playoff hopes as well as help Cal Poly even its conference record. That’s what the Mustangs have left to play for.
10. Montana State (2-4 in Big Sky play, 4-5 overall) — Montana State’s tailspin continued last week with a 34-23 loss to first-place Southern Utah. Now the Bobcats find themselves in a similar situation as Northern Colorado and Weber State. For a program that has made the playoffs four times this decade and claimed six Big Sky titles since 2002, that’s not a good thing.
Montana State will have to win its remaining two games just to finish above .500. The Bobcats haven’t had a losing season since 2001, the longest active streak in the Big Sky. Although Idaho State has struggled —the Bengals have defeated just one Division I team — the Bobcats have shown no signs of being able to win on the road in more than a year. MSU has six straight road losses dating back to last season and has lost eight of its last 10 away from Bozeman overall. If MSU can get past former head coach Mike Kramer and the Bengals, the ‘Cats will still have to defeat a surging Montana team that is still alive in the playoff hunt. MSU has not defeated UM in Bozeman since 2005.
Trying to win a few games down the stretch to secure a winning season is an accomplishment for Weber and Northern Colorado. For a program with the pride and tradition of MSU, it’s a nightmare.
11. Idaho State (1-5 in Big Sky play, 2-7 overall) — You would be hard-pressed to find a team that has had breakdowns offensively, defensively and on special teams as evenly as ISU this season. That said, Mike Kramer has always taken great joy in beating the Montana schools, whether it’s as the head coach at EWU or Montana State or Idaho State.
Last week, Kramer’s Bengals took Montana down to the wire before another special teams breakdown doomed ISU. With Montana State coming to Pocatello for the first time since 2010, the Bengals will be sure to give the Bobcats their best shot. In a season where injuries and misfortune have decimated his roster, beating his former employer followed by his rival could be something Kramer could use as a building block heading into 2016.
12. Sacramento State (1-5 in Big Sky play, 2-7 overall) — True freshman quarterback Nate Ketteringham continues to improve — he threw for 335 yards last week against Cal Poly — and that’s a bright spot for a team in a rebuilding season.
Although Sac does not have much left to play for, the Hornets could still have an influence on the playoff picture. Sac State plays at NAU on Saturday. The first win by a visitor at Walkup Skydome could end NAU’s playoff hopes while also giving Sac a jolt with a home game against rival UC Davis for the Causeway Classic still remaining during an otherwise trying year.
13. UC Davis (1-5 in Big Sky play, 1-8 overall) — Throughout a trying season filled with offensive struggles, the Aggies at least felt they had a solid option under center. With quarterback Ben Scott on the shelf with an injury for an undisclosed amount of time, now Davis’ offense is filled with even more doubt.
Last week against Weber State, UC Davis manufactured just three points, nine first downs and accumulated just 174 total yards. CJ Spencer completed 15-of-28 passes for just 146 yards and the Davis rushing attack managed just 28 yards on 22 carrries (1.3 yards per carry).
The Aggies’ 38-24 win over Northern Arizona last month is looking more and more like an anomaly during a trying year in Davis. UCD has a change to salvage some in-state bragging rights over the next two weeks with a home game against Cal Poly and a trip to Sac State remaining.
LAST WEEK — WEEK 11 (Winners in bold)
Saturday, November 7
*UC Davis at Weber State
*Sacramento State at Cal Poly
*Portland State at Northern Colorado — Loss
*Northern Arizona at Eastern Washington — Loss
*Southern Utah at Montana State
*Montana at Idaho State
Skyline Sports Week: 4-2 Overall: 58-17
THIS WEEK — WEEK 12 (Winners in bold)
Saturday, November 14
*Sacramento State at Northern Arizona
*Cal Poly at UC Davis
*Eastern Washington at Montana
*Southern Utah at Portland State
*Northern Colorado at North Dakota
*Montana State at Idaho State
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