Big Sky Bets

BIG SKY BETS – WEEK 11

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Last week, we hit the middle, winning three and losing three. Sac State senior quarterback Kevin Thomson going down with an injury might’ve had something to do with that, although Weber State led by two touchdowns before he went down.

Montana once again exploded in the second half offensively as backup quarterback Cam Humphrey threw for 334 yards and four touchdowns, including three scoring strikes after the break in a 38-23 win that helped Montana cover -8.5 easily.

For the first time this year, we were smart enough to bet for the Idaho Vandals at home. That came through with a 21-9 victory for the Vandals over Cal Poly at the Kibbie Dome.

We moved to 7-3 this season with our lock of the week as Montana State put the game away against Southern Utah in the matter of minutes. MSU led 21-0 by the time SUU had run seven offensive plays. The Bobcats led 42-0 at halftime and cruised to a 42-7 win to easily cover -13.

Northern Arizona did its part in making our over/under lock of the week of 82 for NAU at Eastern Washington. But the 38 points the Lumberjacks scored were well short of our NAU +13 pick as the visitors lost 66-38 in a game where the Eagles the over far in the rearview.

Sac State trailed 23-10 when Thomson went down with an injury. The Wildcats remained the only undefeated team in Big Sky Conference play by posting a 36-21 win to make the Sac State -7 line look like a mistake.And Idaho State continued its free fall, losing 26-20 to previously hapless Northern Colorado at home. ISU entered the game as a 16-point favorite

Week 10 Record: 3-3

Overall Record: 36-42-2

Week 11

(All lines provided by 5dimes)

Lock of the Week: Montana State -11.5 (Season: 7-3)

Best Investment: Portland State +140

Over Under Lock: Eastern Washington/Idaho State Over 74.5 (Season 5-5)

Saturday November 9

Montana State @ Northern Colorado (-11.5) O/U 50 12:00 PM

Montana State safety Brayden Konkol (41) defends a pass vs Southern Utah in 2019/by Brooks Nuanezz

Northern Colorado completed the sweep of the Idaho schools last week, beating Idaho State on the road. The Cats always have trouble in Greeley, but I think that will change this week. Montana State scored 42 points in the first half last week and will have another chance at working on their offense this week. The Bears have the second worst rushing defense in the Big Sky. That coupled with the worst ranked offense makes this pick pretty easy. The Bobcat defense shut down Southern Utah a week after they scored 59. I like Tucker Rovig and the Bobcat rushing attack to keep the scoring going. Give me Montana State -11.5. This is my Lock of the Week.

Pick: Montana State -11.5

Idaho @ Montana (-17) O/U 55.5 1:00 PM

Montana quarterback Cam Humphrey (2) jukes in the open field vs Eastern Washington in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

The battle for the Little Brown Stein takes place in Missoula this Saturday. The teams meet in Missoula for the first time since 2003. The Vandals got their first Big Sky conference win of the season last week by dominating Cal Poly. The Vandals boast the 2nd best pass defense in the Big Sky, and will have their hands full with arguably the conference’s best receiving core. Dalton Sneed is presumably back this week and the Vandals are still trying to find an offensive identity on the road. If this were in the Dome I might think differently. However, Washington Grizzly Stadium will be rocking and I think the Griz roll this week. I’ll take Montana -17.

Pick: Montana -17

North Dakota @ Weber State (-16.5) O/U 51.5 2:00 PM

Weber State defensive end Johan Williams in 2019/by Robert Casey – Weber State Athletics

The last time we saw North Dakota they pulled off an impressive win at home against Montana State. The Fighting Hawks are on the road this week and that doesn’t bode well. Outside of a win against Cal Poly on the road, North Dakota has been awful away from home. Weber State is coming off a huge win against Sacramento State this week. The Wildcats return home to recoup before a really tough match up in Missoula this week. If it were any other team I would think this is a trap game. But not for a Jay Hill coached football team. I like Weber State -16.5.

Pick: Weber State -16.5

Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona (+13.5) O/U 76.5 2:00 PM

Sacramento State defensive end George Obinna (99) gets the edge on Montana State tackle Connor Wood (63) in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Kevin Thomson is out for Sacramento State this week. Jake Dunniway came in for the Hornets and struggled, throwing 2 interceptions and completing 50% of his passes. Weber State has a great defense. Northern Arizona does not. I think Troy Taylor will have Dunniway prepared for this weeks game in Flagstaff. Case Cookus is going to have his hands full with a Sacramento State defense that has 36 sacks on the season. I don’t think Cookus will be very comfortable this game and look for Sacramento State’s defense to pick up the slack. I like Sacramento State -13.5.

Pick: Sacramento State -13.5

UC Davis @ Portland State (+3.5) O/U 63 2:05 PM

Portland State tight end Charlie Taumoepeau (89) in 2018/by Portland State Athletics

UC Davis has been a team of mystery this season. Injuries have hampered the team so far, but Jake Maier has had a great season otherwise. Despite the offensive production, UC Davis hasn’t quite had the season they expected. Missing the playoffs is a possibility. The Aggies finish the season with Montana State and Sacramento State. This game is a must win for Dan Hawkins and company. Portland State is all but out of playoff contention, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t motivated to play spoiler. I don’t think Portland State will be able to handle a healthy Aggie team. I like UC Davis to cover -3.5 in Hillsboro.

Pick: UC Davis -3.5

Eastern Washington @ Idaho State (+6.5) O/U 74.5 2:30 PM

Eastern Washington quarterback Eric Barrier (3) vs Montana in 2019/by Brooks Nuanez

Eastern Washington makes the journey to Pocatello to play the dumpster fire that is Idaho State. After an impressive win at home against North Dakota, the Bengals have lost to Idaho, Northern Colorado and Southern Utah. Plus, thanks to some great scheduling, the Bengals can look forward to playing BYU next week before finishing up against Weber State. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. I think Eastern will have a field day in Pocatello. They might cover the spread on their own. If Southern Utah can score 59 on the Bengals, what will the Eagles score? I like Eastern -6.5.

Pick: Eastern Washington -6.5

MatchupsSpreadOver/UnderTime
Montana State @ Northern Colorado(+11.5)O/U 5012:00 pm
Pick: Montana State -11.5
Idaho @ Montana(-17)O/U 55.51:00 pm
Pick: Montana -17
North Dakota @ Weber State(-16.5)O/U 51.52:00 pm
Pick: Weber State -16.5
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona(+13.5)O/U 76.52:00 pm
Pick: Sacramento State -13
UC Davis @ Portland State(+3.5)O/U 632:05 pm
Pick: UC Davis -3.5
Eastern Washington @ Idaho State(+6.5)O/U 632:30 pm
Pick: Eastern Washington -6.5

Photos by Brooks Nuanez or noted. All Rights Reserved.

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